Benchmarking seasonal forecasting skill using river flow persistence in Irish catchments

This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill of river flow persistence in 46 catchments representing a range hydrogeological conditions across Ireland. Skill is evaluated against climatology benchmark and by examining correlations between predicted observed anomalies. Forecasts perform best when initialized drier summer months, 87% which show greater relative to at 1-month horizon. Such declines as horizon increases due longer time catchment has “forget” initial anomalous and/or be impacted “new” events. related physical descriptors such baseflow index (correlation ρ = 0.86) greatest permeable high-storage catchments. The distinct spatial variations allow us pinpoint where this method can provide useful future development more complex hydrological forecasting approaches